Opinion: Echoes of ‘India Shining’

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A hat-trick with issues like anti-incumbency, religious and regional polarisations is going to be a tough task for BJP

By Dr Manikya Mahesh

Is India once again witnessing the ‘India Shining’ phenomenon of 2004, after exactly 20 years? While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is confident of winning back the people’s mandate for the third time in a row, many sections of the Indian intelligentsia are doubting the tall claims of the ruling party. It’s reminiscent of one of India’s most popular prime ministers, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s, election campaign in 2004. Back then, the Prime Minister and his party came up with a powerful two-word election slogan called ‘India Shining,’ believing in India’s growth on many fronts under their rule.

Vajpayee’s Leadership

As an administrator, Vajpayee had garnered positivity among various sections, thanks to the nuclear tests under his leadership, which became an international talking point in geopolitics. Many compared Vajpayee’s leadership to that of Indira Gandhi, who also conducted nuclear tests during her tenure. The nuclear tests elevated India’s status to a nuclear power, igniting patriotic fervour across the nation. Vajpayee’s welfare schemes and infrastructure boosts, like the Swarna Jayanti National Highway Programme, were considered game-changers for the Indian road mobility sector. Alongside these factors, the BJP leadership believed there was no competition for them, especially from the Congress under the political novice Sonia Gandhi as its president. However, despite the blitzkrieg campaign, the NDA led by Vajpayee’s BJP lost the elections. Post-elections, many BJP leaders, including senior leader LK Advani, admitted that their campaign slogan ‘India Shining’ overshadowed the harsh realities of a struggling economy, unemployment and poverty.

When the NDA led by Vajpayee’s BJP lost, many admitted that their ‘India Shining’ slogan cast a shadow on the harsh realities of economy, unemployment, poverty

Case of Déjà Vu?

This background echoes the same confidence and campaign tenets of today’s ruling BJP party. The party has initiated the election campaign with ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar,’ literally meaning they aim for 400-plus Lok Sabha seats in the parliamentary polls. The BJP might have its reasons for such a strong slogan, such as the long-awaited Ram Mandir temple construction in Ayodhya, accolades to India, especially Prime Minister Modi, in international politics, economic reforms, welfare programmes for various sectors and a slow but steady economy.

However, unprecedented unemployment and the Covid-19 crisis, leading to job losses in many informal sectors, along with agitations against the agriculture farm laws, slowing economy and petrol price rise are likely to affect the BJP’s electoral dividends this time.

Apart from numerous administrative and policy-related shortcomings to the resounding ‘Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar’ slogan, there are significant political challenges hindering BJP-led NDA prospects in the current polls. The major challenge, having peaked in all large States in North India in the last elections, is expected to be the biggest hurdle in repeating the electoral magic. Especially in States like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, where BJP scored nearly 100 per cent last time, the party is facing tough challenges from the Congress in Rajasthan and Gujarat and regional parties elsewhere. It also faces challenges in the largest State, Uttar Pradesh, with the Congress and the Samajwadi Party forming an I.N.D.I.A alliance. Even replicating the same success as in 2019 in West Bengal poses another challenge for the BJP.

Distant South

Apart from the challenges in the Hindi belt and North India, the BJP always faces hurdles in the South during parliamentary polls. In the entire 132 seats in South India last time, the saffron party only secured 29 seats, with Karnataka being the major contributor. However, this time, the ruling Congress is aiming for a major share in the current polls in Karnataka. Ground reports from media sources suggest Tamil Nadu is disappointing the BJP despite its high-stake campaign.

But the BJP, as an organisation, has significantly strengthened its support ecosystem over the last decade, unlike during the 2004 elections. Many are pondering over the BJP and its leadership raising highly polarised issues, including direct references to the Muslim community, instead of the much-hyped ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ by the party. While some consider this a sign of weakness and lack of confidence in winning big in elections, others in the party believe that such highly polarised speeches will eventually lead them to big numbers in the final tally.

This heavy polarisation is a double-edged sword, as it may lead to the polarisation of minorities and ultimately benefit regional forces and the Congress. However, it appears that the BJP still has an edge over the scattered opposition block under the India alliance.

Repeat or Reject

Repeating victory for the third time in the Indian general elections only happened once under the leadership of the first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru during the 1960s, when there weren’t many opposition parties. But repeating the hat-trick with issues like anti-incumbency, religious and regional polarisations and fast-changing aspirations of voters is going to be a tough task for the BJP, for sure.

If issues like employment and regional aspirations, along with a desire for change, resonate with the people, the déjà vu of ‘India Shining’ in 2004 will definitely be repeated in 2024. The question remains: will the BJP fall flat like in 2004 with the ‘India Shining’ campaign, or will it come back to power? The fate of India, and especially Modi 3.0, lies in the hands of the people. We have to wait until June 4th, the election results day, for answers.

(The author is senior journalist with over 15 years of experience in media and public relations)

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