IMD predicts above-normal monsoon this year

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said the south-west monsoon, which accounts for about 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, will be above normal, said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.

The spatial distribution will be normal except some regions in the north in the North and some parts of the East may experience below normal rainfall, in a press conference on long-range forecast of the monsoon. 

Rainfall during June-September will likely be above normal and higher. It will be 106 per cent of the long-period average, he said. 

IOD may develop

El Nino, which emerged in June 2023 resulting in deficient rainfall and resulting in drought in parts of the country, will weaken further and result in ENSO-neutral during the early part of the monsoon. A weak La Nina, which can bring in heavy rainfall and floods, will emerge subsequently, thereafter. 

Signals from the Pacific are favourable for above normal rainfall. He said the positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to develop during the latter part of monsoon. Northern hemisphere snow cover was below normal, leading to better monsoon rainfall, said Ravichadran. 

Most of the conditions statistically are favourable, he said. 

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