Diplomatic challenge

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Muizzu’s return to power could solidify his pro-China stance and raises concerns about the future of Maldives-India relations

Pro-China leader Mohamed Muizzu’s return to power in the Maldives with a comfortable majority poses fresh diplomatic challenges to India in view of the recent friction in the bilateral relationship due to the anti-India sentiments being whipped up in the tiny island nation. Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC), which won the mandate for a second term in a row, is widely seen as being close to China and had, in the previous election, made “India Out” its main campaign theme. Muizzu has been quite aggressive in calling for the withdrawal of Indian troops from his country and had even set a deadline for it. New Delhi will be closely monitoring the policies of the PNC government in the days ahead, amid clear signs of Male’s tilt towards Beijing. While India was forced to withdraw most of its military personnel manning three aviation platforms in the country, Muizzu travelled to China in January and met top Chinese leaders, including President Xi Jinping. China and the Maldives also signed a defence cooperation agreement and several other infrastructure development projects. The Maldives is India’s key maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and occupies a special place in its initiatives like ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ of the Indian government. On the other hand, China is expanding its footprints in the IOR through its ‘debt trap’ diplomacy and ‘String of Pearls’ approach, a strategic initiative to create a network of military and commercial establishments in countries falling on the Indian Ocean.

This outcome has the potential to solidify Muizzu’s pro-China stance and raises concerns about the future of Maldives-India relations. India needs to brace itself for major competition with China in the IOR. The archipelago nation has become a hotbed for strategic contestation between India and China, with the geopolitics playing out in the maritime domain getting more tense than that taking place on land. Ever since coming to power, Muizzu has made sure that India removes the over 80 Indian military personnel posted in the Maldives, which consists of around 1,192 coral islands. India has given several defence platforms — from naval boats and aircraft to military choppers — to the Maldives that are engaged in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief purposes. In the altered scenario, India will have to be very cautious because Muizzu is all-powerful there now and will steer the foreign policy of his country towards China. Already, the Maldives and China have vowed to deepen their strategic ties, elevating them to the level of a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. At the same time, Muizzu also knows that he cannot keep India too far away even though he aligns with China. He knows that if any crisis hits the island nation, like it has before, India will be the first to respond.

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