APEC Climate Centre predicts La Nina during July-December

The APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has issued a “La Nina Watch” with temperatures expected to decline gradually from -0.2℃ in July 2024 to -1.1℃ in December 2024, it said in its seasonal forecast on Monday. 

“La Nina conditions are most probably for July-December 2024,” APCC said in the forecast for the July-December 2024 period. The predictions align with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia, and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US. 

Both have altered their predictions for the emergence of La Nina from July-September 2024. 

BoM has said “La Nina Watch” does not necessarily guarantee that the event, which leads to heavy rains and floods in India, will emerge on time. The CPC, an arm of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has scaled down the chances of La Nina setting in July-September marginally. 

APCC predicted a “strongly enhanced probability” for above-normal temperatures for most of the globe except for the eastern tropical and subtropical Pacific for the July – December period. However, it excludes among others India. 

The Climate Center, established by the endorsement of 21 APEC members in 2005 as a worldwide climate prediction institute serving as a hub for climate information in the Asia-Pacific region, projected above-normal rainfall in the western Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and South Asia apart from a few other regions. 

The prediction is in line with the India Meteorological Department’s projection of above-normal south-west monsoon this year. The south-west monsoon makes up over 70 per cent of the total rainfall in the country.

Kharif crops hit

The IMD said in its latest press release that the monsoon as of June 16 was 18 per cent lower than normal with north-west India, the key region for India’s kharif crops, suffering the most. 

The region has so far received 65 per cent lower than usual precipitation, while central India, another key region for the country’s agricultural prospects, has received 25 per cent deficient rainfall.  The eastern and north-eastern region has received 21 per cent less than normal rainfall, while the southern peninsula has received 22 per cent excess precipitation. 

In view of El Nino emerging in June 2023, India received deficient rainfall resulting in lower water storage in major reservoirs. Currently, the level in the reservoirs is 22 per cent of the capacity. This led to a fourth of the country suffering from drought.