
The Centre’s decision to increase its stake in Vodafone Idea from 22.60 per cent to 48.99 per cent by converting debt worth ₹36,950 crore into equity raises serious questions about the government’s long-term vision for the cash-strapped telecom operator. While this move may provide temporary relief, it does not ensure Vodafone Idea’s survival, let alone enable it to compete effectively with Reliance Jio and Airtel. The government must provide a detailed roadmap on how it plans to revive the company beyond merely keeping it afloat for a few more months.
The expectation that a larger government stake will attract a strategic investor remains uncertain. Some may view this as a confidence-building measure, but others might see it as a desperate attempt by a distressed operator to stay relevant. Yet, if Vodafone Idea collapses, it will leave only two dominant players, raising concerns about reduced competition and its impact on consumers. This is not the first time the government has stepped in to assist Vodafone Idea. In 2023, it converted ₹16,133 crore of debt into equity at ₹10 per share. However, this did little to improve the company’s position, as the value of the government’s holding has since declined by 32 per cent. A similar step now is unlikely to yield different results.
The Centre’s strategy for Vodafone’s revival is unclear. Vodafone Idea is still burdened with over ₹1.7 lakh crore in debt, much of which is owed to the government due to Supreme Court-mandated payments on Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR). Until this fundamental issue is addressed, banks and strategic investors will remain hesitant to infuse fresh capital. At the same time, putting the company through insolvency proceedings would yield little recovery, as its key assets — subscribers, spectrum, and infrastructure — offer limited salvage value. Spectrum can be reacquired in auctions, subscribers can switch operators via number portability, and most infrastructure is leased rather than owned. If the goal is to ensure that Vodafone Idea thrives rather than merely survives, fresh cash infusion is the only viable solution. The responsibility for this cannot be the government’s. Existing promoters — Aditya Birla group and Vodafone plc — must step up with additional funding. The government already faces challenges in keeping state-run telecom companies BSNL and MTNL operational.
The telecom industry has seen numerous players exit the market over the past two decades due to regulatory challenges and intense competition. While allowing natural market forces to dictate outcomes is a fundamental principle of a mature market economy, the risk of a duopoly is a valid concern. Yet, propping up Vodafone Idea without ensuring it can offer real competition that will benefit consumers, serves no purpose. The government must either commit to a robust revival strategy or reconsider its role in the sector altogether. A piecemeal approach will not help provide consumers with a genuine third alternative in India’s telecom landscape.
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