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U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to impose sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods and taxes on imports will have potential ramifications for global trade. As trade wars escalate, countries across the world will feel the heat of inflation, dwindling supply, and market volatility.
Multilateralism thus faces increased pressure from the rising protectionism and growing unilateralism in international affairs. The impact will be felt across globally relevant issues such as climate commitments, development aid, and international migrations.
At a recent conference organised by the Centre for Development Policy and Practice, Hyderabad, an eminent panel of experts discussed the shifting global order and highlighted several crucial themes:
Trade wars
The ongoing trade wars severely undermine the credibility of multilateral platforms such as the World Trade Organisation. With the US-China imposing heavy tariffs on each other, rule-based trading may lose credibility. The erosion of multilateral dispute resolution systems will lead to countries imposing tariff unilaterally. The larger impact of this unilateral dealing will be felt across the developing countries, who will no longer be able to protect their interests. The strategic shifts in trade regimes are increasingly ideological, often offering an economic rationale. In this scenario, developing nations are left to navigate a game where the rules are constantly rewritten.
Development aid
Global aid now faces increased conditionalities and nationalist retrenchments and thus severely limits the capacity of civil society. With over $75 billion in aid cuts from key donors such as the U.S., the U.K., and the E.U., developing countries are now grappling with reduced fiscal space for rights-based interventions. India, though, has been cautious with the foreign aid it has received. However, it is not immune. The domestic development sector faces severe job losses compounded by stringent FCRA regulations. Civil society must now stay afloat, whilst battling pressures of geopolitics, domestic regulations, and a funding crisis. The development sector in India must shift its reliance on domestic public expenditure, CSR funding, and religious philanthropy.
Climate commitments
Global Climate change commitments will face increasing uncertainty in the present scenario. The year 2024 has been the hottest year on record, and notable for massive climate-induced displacements. The Paris Agreement set ambitious targets; however, global contributions fell short. Climate justice must be accountable to historical injustices and be mindful of global inequalities. Wealthy and industrialised nations must work towards fulfilling the pledges made towards climate finance for funding climate action in the developing South. Moreover, richer, industrialised, and developed countries should take on the responsibility to meet their green targets.
India presents a complex picture—committed to renewables, yet expanding coal use. Encouragingly, 92% of new energy additions in 2024 were renewable. However, there is a need for robust, enforceable policies to bridge the gap between climate commitments and action.
Migration and labour mobility
India’s global remittance amounts to nearly $125 billion. Despite being the top recipient of remittances globally, international migration in India suffers from a governance deficit. While global migration policies tighten, internal systems remain fragmented, leaving workers vulnerable to exploitation. The absence of data and institutional frameworks mars effective diaspora engagement. Migration contributes to development. However, in the absence of accountability and data, migrants live in insecurity—unstable jobs, no access to healthcare, risk of deportation, or abuse from employers.
Another aspect that needs immediate attention is the unregulated student migration and the role of fraudulent agencies in facilitating exploitative labour conditions abroad, especially in Southeast Asia. Thus, the need is to humanise international migration, urging policymakers to look beyond remittance figures and to make systems more robust and accountable.
Whether it is imposition of reciprocal tariffs on developing countries, the cuts in development funding or the hesitancy in executing climate commitments¾the new world order is increasingly leaning away from collective responsibility. In a fragmented world order, without consensus on some of the most critical concerns, it is the vulnerable that will continue to bear the brunt. The least developed countries with the poorest majority will suffer from the impact of climate change, volatilities in trade and migration policies, and cuts in international development aid.
(The Centre for Development Policy and Practice held a conference in Hyderabad on March 28, 2025, titled “Development Policy and Practice Conference, March 2025.” This article is based on the panel discussion on “Trade, Geopolitics, and Climate Change.”)
Nahia Hussain is Vice President (Policy Affairs) at CDPP. She has a Master’s degree from the National Law School of India, Bangalore. She has work experience in diverse issues like gender rights, sustainability, foreign policy, health, and criminal justice.
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