The unravelling of alliances – The Hindu BusinessLine

For years, India has been putting huge efforts into building relations with the US. This has seemed like smart diplomacy, given the US is the world’s lone superpower. After all, a deep partnership with Washington should serve as a strong counterweight to China, especially as we’ve been facing off against the Chinese in the cold wastes of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh.

But under Donald Trump, unpredictability has gone into overdrive, forcing us to confront a harsh question: Can we ever fully trust the Americans to have our back? We mustn’t drop Plan A yet. But it’s time to work on developing a Plan B, and potentially a Plan C, and to think outside the box in unprecedented ways.

Trump has been dropping one diplomatic bombshell after another, reshaping international relations in ways neither staunch US allies like Canada nor adversaries thought possible.

For now, Trump is sticking to his plans to slap “reciprocal” tariffs April 2 on countries including India. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are thought to be among the first targets. A tariff on pharmaceuticals would, of course, hit India hard. But there’s no clarity on which items will bear the initial brunt. As one news site put it: “Trump’s whirlwind tariff offensive since his January inauguration has been marked by threats, reversals and delays, sometimes within hours of imposition of deadlines.”

On Monday, Trump threw another trade grenade, threatening to impose an extra 25 per cent tariff on any country buying Venezuelan oil. India and China are major purchasers, and if this threat becomes a reality, we could be in deep tariff trouble.

Then, there’s the security angle. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth made a monumental blunder by accidentally revealing details of a forthcoming American attack on Houthi forces in Yemen via WhatsApp to The Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg. A stunned Goldberg wrote: “US national security leaders included me in a group chat about upcoming military strikes in Yemen. I didn’t think it could be real. Then the bombs started falling.”

Trump dismissed the fiasco, attacking The Atlantic as a “failing magazine.”

Meanwhile, on the diplomatic circuit, or circus, some might say, there are Trump’s bizarre threats to claim Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal. The US is dispatching Second Lady Usha Vance to Greenland, ostensibly to watch a dogsled race, while National Security Advisor Tim Waltz will inspect the American base there. Greenland has been witnessing massive protests (relative to its population of just 56,000) against what many see as a colonial-style land grab.

Over the weekend, Trump again underscored his belief no friendship lasts forever when he announced development of the 6th-generation F-47 fighter jet. While insisting the plane had strong international demand, he added a stunning caveat: all jets sold to allies would be deliberately downgraded by 10 per cent. As Trump put it, “It probably makes sense, because someday, maybe they’re not our allies.”

Ties with China

So where does that leave India? It’s clear we can’t always count on the US as a reliable ally — even though we have high-level friends in the Trump administration. That’s why India is already considering a pivot and reopening the door closed after the Galwan clashes. Reports suggest we’re weighing lifting restrictions on Chinese companies, products, investments, business and academic visas, and even banned apps.

Could we turn back to our old friend Russia, our loyal long-time armaments supplier? Theoretically, yes. But after three years of war, Russia is severely weakened and increasingly reliant on China. Crucially, Beijing is now a major Russian investor, meaning our old friendship might not be enough to override Chinese influence. And in today’s unpredictable geopolitical landscape, who’s to say Washington and Moscow won’t suddenly decide to bury historic animosities? Nothing’s off the table.

At this point, India’s best option may be a 21st-century version of non-alignment. Yes, Jawaharlal Nehru might well feel vindicated. We must decisively strengthen trade ties with the EU and the UK, both of which find themselves unexpectedly vulnerable. In Asia, reviving trade relationships with the RCEP nations is imperative. And, unthinkable as it may seem, rebuilding ties with China may be a wise move. We’re also holding naval exercises next month with 10 African nations.

The reality is in this rapidly shifting global landscape, national interest reigns supreme. We must be willing to entertain the unthinkable as we navigate an uncertain future because, in today’s world, even your closest friend might sell you a jet with 10 per cent less firepower.