The Modi Doctrine: A New Calculus For A Dangerous Neighbourhood

The Modi Doctrine: A New Calculus For A Dangerous Neighbourhood

By Inderjit Badhwar

Just days after missile trails arced over the skies of Punjab and Kashmir, and drone strikes lit up border towns on either side of the Line of Control, South Asia stands at an uneasy pause. For now, the guns have fallen silent. But the message from New Delhi could not be clearer: the age of strategic restraint is over.

This month’s cover story decodes what is fast emerging as a defining principle of India’s national security posture under Prime Minister Narendra Modi—a doctrine forged in the fire of terror attacks, refined through limited war, and now publicly unveiled through a calibrated show of military force. The strikes on Pakistan-administered territory on May 7, followed by a high-risk cycle of retaliatory attacks, mark not only a turning point in the subcontinent’s latest crisis, but also the international debut of a new Indian calculus: deterrence through audacity, and diplomacy through dominance.

In this issue, we explore what Modi’s emerging doctrine means—not just for Pakistan, but for the wider region and the global order.

At its heart lies a simple proposition: that India will no longer absorb cross-border terrorism as an immutable fact of geography. By targeting not just terrorist infrastructure, but military assets deeper inside Pakistan, India has signalled that it now views proxy militancy not as a policing problem, but as a strategic challenge demanding state-level retribution.

Critics will call it reckless. But to Modi’s administration, it is a necessity—backed by a belief that India’s growing economic clout, global partnerships, and technological superiority provide sufficient buffers against escalation. This is a dangerous wager. Yet it reflects a broader shift in India’s strategic self-perception: as a nation no longer willing to be defined by victimhood, or to wait for international sympathy after the fact.

The regional implications are immense. India’s posture reshapes the deterrence architecture between two nuclear-armed rivals. For Pakistan, it dismantles the traditional buffer of plausible deniability. For smaller South Asian nations, it sets a precedent of assertive regional policing. For Afghanistan and Iran, whose territories have sometimes hosted actors of interest to India, it signals a sharpened edge to Indian strategic patience.

Globally, the stakes are no less significant. The United States, which swiftly moved to mediate the latest ceasefire, finds itself once again playing fireman in a familiar theatre of crisis. Washington’s longstanding struggle to wean Pakistan off its dependency on proxy groups is now running into the reality of a more muscular India—one that no longer sees American caution as sufficient protection. For Russia and China, the episode is a reminder that the Indo-Pacific’s stability may not only depend on sea lanes and trade routes, but on the volatile heart of the Asian landmass.

Yet the Modi Doctrine is not only about military action. Its true test will lie in the political aftermath—whether India can leverage this moment to demand real international accountability for Pakistan’s internal dysfunction, and whether it can do so without alienating the very allies it seeks to influence.

Equally, the doctrine must grapple with its internal contradictions. If New Delhi seeks to lead by moral clarity, it must also examine how its own governance in Jammu and Kashmir is perceived. Heavy-handed tactics and political marginalisation risk feeding the very narratives India seeks to eliminate. Strategic strength must be matched by democratic strength—of the kind that inspires not just fear, but trust.

This cover story does not seek to endorse or condemn India’s actions. Rather, it seeks to understand them—to interpret their long shadow across Asia’s security landscape, and to assess whether the world is prepared for a more assertive India.

In this new era, India is not merely reacting to threats. It is shaping the terrain on which threats are defined. That may be a moment of pride for some, of concern for others. But it is, undeniably, a moment of transformation.

Welcome to the age of the Modi Doctrine.

This article first appeared on India Legal

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