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Smartphones have become such an integral part of our lives that it’s almost impossible to imagine what life would be like without them. However, for 2025, the upgrade cycle could be taking a hit. According to the latest Counterpoint Research figures, smartphone growth could take a hit in 2025 because of tariffs.
Tariffs to negatively impact smartphone growth
Counterpoint Research had previously suggested that smartphone shipments in 2025 could be at 4.2% YoY. However, it has now revised its figures and suggests that smartphone growth in 2025 is more likely at 1.9% YoY, and tariffs are to blame.
In fact, taking a closer look at region to region, Counterpoint believes that the North American market will actually see negative growth of around 3%. This is versus other markets like Europe, India, MEA, and CALA, all of which are in the positive range. It’s not surprising that North America is taking the biggest hit.
Trump’s tariffs impact goods imported into the US. The tariffs applied will vary depending on where these smartphones are made. Unless these companies are willing to eat the tax to prevent it from being passed onto customers, we’re most likely going to see price increases. This also means customers might be less likely to upgrade than before, and we can’t say we blame them.
According to Counterpoint Research Associate Director Liz Lee, “All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia.”
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard about the tariffs’ negative impact on smartphone growth. An earlier report from the IDC suggested something similar. However, its figures are more conservative, at 0.6%.
Prices could soar
It’s still a bit early to tell how badly these tariffs will impact smartphone prices. When Trump first announced tariffs against China, which went over 100%, some analysts suggested worst-case scenarios where we might end up with smartphones priced at $3,500. Some companies, such as Apple, have taken some preventive measures. This includes flying in billions of dollars worth of inventory to stockpile just in case things get really bad.
This article first appeared on Android Headlines
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