Sensex, Nifty set for flat open as traders turn cautious in shortened week

Market volatility has eased as India’s VIX dropped, with strong support identified at 22,500 and resistance at the 23,000-23,200 range.
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Domestic markets are likely to see a flat-to-positive opening on Tuesday amid positive global cues, but analysts expect that the three-day trading week will likely see narrow movement. The US President Donald Trump’s daily tariff announcements keep traders on the edge, said analysts. As the market will remain closed on Friday due to Good Friday, participation will remain low, and traders will carry less position overnight amid fear over escalating tension between the US and other countries, said analysts.

Amidst tariff tension, the focus \now shifts to host macroeconomic numbers and corporate results, say analysts.

Gift Nifty is trading at 23,300, signals a flat opening for Nifty at open.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited: “The intensity of the US-China trade war will be crucially viewed by the market, which can potentially offset the impact of the current pause on trade tariffs on other emerging markets. On the other hand, the market has entered the result season with a subdued expectation. The initial results from the IT major acknowledge the impact of trade tensions and expect a delay in discretionary spending.

The focus will be on the outcome of the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between India and the US, which will add more colour to the trade potential of the domestic market. The supportive domestic environment with ease in interest rates and a benign inflation trajectory is encouraging investors to have a balanced portfolio to aid for a better risk-reward in the long term. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to moderate further because of cooling food prices, which would allow RBI to remain accommodative. We expect caution to prevail due to the holiday-led truncated week.”

According to Bajaj Broking, the week of April 12 to April 19, 2025, brings a host of significant economic data releases from major global economies, which are expected to guide market sentiment and influence monetary policy expectations. In India, the March Wholesale Price Index (WPI) will be released on April 15. This indicator will provide insights into wholesale inflation trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures at the production level and could have implications for the Reserve Bank of India’s future rate decisions.

Overall, the week is poised to be crucial for global markets. With inflation, industrial activity, and employment data lined up across the world’s largest economies, investors can expect increased volatility and a sharper focus on central bank cues. The domestic brokerage said these numbers will help shape expectations for future rate paths and economic resilience as we progress deeper into 2025. 

On the domestic side, The spotlight will also be on corporate earnings, with heavyweights such as Wipro and Infosys from the IT sector, along with private banking majors HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, scheduled to announce their quarterly results. 

PL Capital expects Nifty to hit 25,521 in a year

PL Capital, in its latest India Strategy Report, stated thatNifty EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been revised by 6.2% and 5.6% since October 2024. “With ongoing tariff wars and a volatile macro environment, there’s a possibility of further downward revisions in the first half of FY26. In the near term, the company expects domestic-facing sectors to outperform—specifically Hospitals, Domestic Pharma, Retail, select Staples, Banks, Defence, and Power. PL Capital assign’s NIFTY a 7.5% discount to its 15-year average PE (18.9x), valuing it at 17.5x on March 2027 EPS of 1460, which yields a 12-month target of 25,521 (revised from 25,689).”