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Retail and digital revenues are expected to grow in low single digits
Reliance Industries is seen reporting flat operating profit sequentially in the March quarter due to weak earnings in its dominant oils-to-chemicals business and also muted growth in its retail business.
A sequential decline is expected in gross refining margin driven by weaker Singapore refining product cracks and higher crude premium.
RIL is seen recording around 3.4 per cent sequential rise in consolidated net profit in Q4 and revenue down 1.4 per cent, according to estimates by Elara Capital. Net profit is pegged at ₹19,171 crore and revenue at ₹2.4 lakh crore.
Retail and digital revenues are expected to grow in low single digits.
Petchem view
“We expect energy EBITDA to decline sequentially due to weaker O2C earnings,” said Goldman Sachs in a preview note. On petchem it said it expected a longer recovery trajectory for margins. “However we expect RIL to continue outperforming industry margins, driven by a significant cost curve advantage compared to naptha-based peers.
“We expect a sequential dip in RIL’s O2C and Oil & Gas divisions operating profit due to lower production volumes,” said BNP Paribas.
RIL will be announcing its results on Friday after market hours.
For Reliance Jio residual tariff hikes and strong fixed wireless access is seen as aiding growth. Revenue in the quarter for Jio is seen rising 4 per cent sequentially to ₹30,500 crore, GS said, adding that it expected the telecom operator to have added 90 lakh subscribers during the quarter.
Jio’s strong AirFiber subscriber growth should boost its sequential revenue growth, BNP Paribas said. The brokerage has Jio Infocomm’s revenue to increase 2 per cent q-o-q led by subscriber additions and EBITDA to rise 16 per cent y-o-y.
“We expect ARPU to increase due to higher proportion of annual recharge consumers.” It has pegged the average revenue per user in Q4 at ₹206, compared to ₹203.3 in the third quarter.
Reliance Retail is seen posting sales growth of around 6.5 per cent y-o-y in Q4, driven by completion of its store rationalisation and focus on fashion. “We expect a slight improvement in margins sequentially as we view restructuring as largely behind,” said Goldman Sachs.
Earnings growth is expected to resume in FY26 driven by growth across all the key segments.
Analysts will be awaiting commentary on how RIL plans its next phase of growth in the retail business and progress in the new energy business.
Published on April 24, 2025
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