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The situation with respect to thermal power looks stable
| Photo Credit:
MURALI KUMAR K
With the onset of summer, the availability of electricity for industrial, domestic and agriculture consumers becomes a concern. This year though there is good news on two fronts. First, coal stocks with thermal power plants are comfortable, and the Railways seems prepared to move coal from the mining centres to power plants. Second, the Short-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (ST-NRAP), drawn up by the Centre, maps out demand patterns for FY26.
This would help Discoms evaluate anticipated shortfalls arising out of existing power purchase agreements and contract for the difference in advance. This reduces costs and has positive implications for grid stability. The situation with respect to thermal power, which supplies 75 per cent of the electricity requirement, looks stable. Coal stocks with domestic coal-based thermal plants are comfortable for this year. At 55 million tonnes as on April 14, these would amount to 20 days’ stock, given a requirement of 2.7 million tonnes a day for 166 domestic coal-based plants — much better than last year. Besides, coal output at a billion tonnes looks good to meet thermal power generation needs of 906 million tonnes (a Ministry of Power estimate) for FY26. The Railways plans to deploy 470 rakes daily to meet the surge in power needs.
This is all very well, provided it works to plan. The system is gearing up to meet a peak electricity demand of over 270 GW in the first week of June, but it is in the later months that uncertainties tend to creep in, especially if monsoon behaviour departs from the norm with a rise in number of dry, hot days. There could be intermittent demand-supply mismatches, which have been referred to in the ST-NRAP report, even if the overall situation is comfortable. The report points out that electricity shortages are more likely during non-solar hours during April-September 2025. From December 2025-March 2026, shortages are expected in the early morning or evening hours. The shortfall in “unserved energy” could go up to 20 GW in April-October in non-solar hours, and lower in the remaining months in the mornings and evenings.
The report has rightly emphasised stepping up battery and pumped storage, besides of course contracting stable coal or gas based power at the margin, in the event of weather playing truant and jeopardising renewables-based power generation. The latter situation could jeopardise grid stability by creating a supply-demand mismatch. A recent Crisil report points to the impact of higher peak as well as pre- or post-summer demand on trades in the real time market. In March this year, owing to the heat wave, the share of RTM in total electricity volumes traded on the IEX was 33 per cent, similar to the levels in September 2024, August 2023 and April-July 2022. While the market-clearing price was under ₹4 a unit last month, it is important to ensure that RTM or day-ahead trades do not cross a certain threshold. This is the essence of power planning.
Published on April 16, 2025
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