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At a time when automakers worldwide are trying to place bets on the next big powertrain breakthrough, India’s commercial vehicle industry finds itself amid a far more complex race—one where there is no single frontrunner, no clear winner, and multiple fuels vying for relevance.
At the Future Powertrain Conference hosted by Autocar Professional in partnership with Guidance Tamil Nadu in Chennai, Ganesh Mani, COO of Ashok Leyland, captured this multi-dimensional landscape with a vivid metaphor.
“It’s like a horse race… Diesel, CNG, LNG, hydrogen ICE, hydrogen fuel cell, and electric—all of them are lined up on the track,” Mani said. “And the customer, the one who puts money on the horse, is only thinking about one thing: the total cost of ownership.”
With India’s freight demand projected to rise from 4.6 billion tonnes annually today to nearly 9.6 billion tonnes by 2050, Mani said the CV segment will be under enormous pressure to evolve, adapt, and deliver across a diverse terrain of logistics—from mining to last-mile delivery. However, a single technology cannot be the answer.
With numerous macroeconomic factors and technological advancements on the horizon, as well as various regulations, it is unlikely that a single technology will emerge as the leader, he believes.
Mani drew global comparisons, highlighting how road freight in the U.S. continues to be dominated by diesel, while Europe’s transition has been slow, and China has emerged as a technological outlier. “There are learnings we can draw from all of them,” he said, adding that India’s transition will be shaped by its unique operating conditions.
One of the key constraints he pointed out is infrastructure, particularly for gas-based fuels.
While the government has aggressively promoted CNG adoption, expanding the number of stations from under 900 in 2014 to over 7,400 as of 2024, the pace still falls short of the target of 70,000. Regarding LNG, infrastructure is still in its early stages, with fewer than 15 active stations, despite its promise for long-haul freight.
In parallel, the National Green Hydrogen Mission, with a budget of Rs.19,744 crore, aims to make India a global hub for hydrogen production and utilization. Of this, Rs. 3,070 crores has been earmarked specifically for hydrogen-powered mobility and pilot projects, including applications in commercial vehicles.
The government is also promoting the use of greater biodiesel and ethanol blending to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels. India currently imports over 85% of its crude oil needs, and the country’s annual fuel import bill exceeds Rs. 16 lakh crores. Transitioning commercial vehicles to alternative fuels is seen as a key step in easing this burden.
In the EV space, commercial vehicles have received dedicated funding under the FAME II scheme and, most recently, under the Ministry of Heavy Industries’ plan to support the development of electric trucks, with a proposed budget of Rs. 500 crores for e-truck pilots.
Despite these measures, Mani believes diesel will remain a mainstay of India’s freight ecosystem for the foreseeable future.
“Diesel is going to stay, I strongly believe. After Euro 6, diesel is almost equal to petrol. It cannot be ruled out from a cleaner fuel perspective, which is a very bread-and-butter issue in this area.”
Mani offered a nuanced view on electric vehicles in the commercial space. While EVs are gaining traction in last-mile delivery and intermediate commercial vehicles (ICVs)—especially in the 14- to 19-tonne range—he pointed out that electrifying the 55-tonne long-haul segment presents significant operational challenges.
“EV has always been one of the important factors that comes into the picture. I am sure it will take place, but not like the cars, where you work on whatever is possible. The variability is much lower. However, for a company that starts with 2 tons to 55 tons, our range of products encompasses approximately 1,450 unique products that are currently available, which will call for diversified powertrains. How CV segment can play a role in EV is a big question mark.”
Even with the government’s Rs. 500 crore e-truck initiative, Mani was cautious about how soon this segment would scale.
“Buses may reach 30% by 2030. The government also started investing some money in e-trucks, amounting to 500 crores. Probably, it’s a long way to go, considering all the other things that are coming out.”
He views hydrogen as a strong long-term option but emphasized the need for it to be price-competitive.
The supply and the breed of hydrogen ICE (whether green or grey hydrogen) depend on the announcement of how quickly it will be available in the market and whether it will match the price of diesel. At a certain point in time, how these things are bridged, and that’s how things are.
Mani emphasized that the transition to the commercial segment must be viewed holistically—across use cases, geographies, and payloads—and must be supported by a robust ecosystem of channel partners, policymakers, infrastructure players, and R&D institutions.
He concluded with a pragmatic view that resonated throughout the conference: there will be no single winner, only multiple pathways, tailored for diverse needs—and engineering teams will have to manage that complexity carefully.
“You have to work with multiple pathways. That’s the engineer’s challenge,” Mani concluded.
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