JPMorgan says Trump’s tariffs to send US into recession in 2025

Forecasted contraction in economic activity expected to depress hiring and over time to lift unemployment rate to 5.3 per cent, says JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli
| Photo Credit:
Mike Segar

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it now expects the US economy to fall into a recession this year after accounting for the likely impact of tariffs announced this week by the Trump administration.

“We now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs, and for the full year (4Q/4Q) we now look for real GDP growth of -0.3 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent previously,” the bank’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, said Friday in a note to clients, referring to gross domestic product.

“The forecasted contraction in economic activity is expected to depress hiring and over time to lift the unemployment rate to 5.3 per cent,” Feroli said.

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