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Russia’s position as India’s top supplier reflects continued reliance on discounted barrels and its ability to deliver across geographies.
India’s crude oil imports in the last few months, particularly May, reflect the world’s third-largest importer navigating geopolitical disruptions led by a price-sensitive and flexible sourcing strategy. An analysis of the data shows that refining economics and operational margins driving procurement decisions.
According to the latest trade numbers from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s crude oil imports last month fell marginally by 1 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) to around 4.87 million barrels per day (mb/d) provisionally. On an annual basis, imports were largely flat.
Analysts and oil marketing company (OMC) officials point to refiners prioritising barrels that optimise margins. While geopolitics can influence short-term flows, eventually refining economics and operational metrics will drive procurement decisions.
Margins speak louder
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline, “Rise in India’s crude imports during May reflects strategic, price-driven decisions by refiners responding to competitive offers from Russia and West Asian producers, whose landed costs undercut benchmark-linked alternatives like Brent and Dubai.”
For instance, Urals crude averaged around $50 a barrel FOB last month, well below the $60 price cap, enabling Indian refiners to lock in favourable margins.
“Meanwhile, US barrels also gained momentum, with India on track to import over 1 mb/d from the US across April–June 2025. This growth — averaging 347,000 b/d in Q2 2025, with June volumes topping 400,000 b/d – is driven by favourable Brent-WTI spreads and a surge in availability of light-sweet grades like Midland, WTL, and Cold Lake,” Ritolia explained.
A top official with a leading OMC said refiners are eyeing “competitive offers”, but at the same time, they are “deftly” sourcing cargoes, spreading them across India’s 40 sourcing countries based on trade dynamics, logistics and margins.
“In this volatility, refiners consider many issues — logistics, price cap, insurance, geopolitics, sanctions, vessels, etc., it is very dynamic. So, we focus on a strategy where we can procure barrels with better price economics. Today, we are going into South and North America despite a 40-day supply time as deals are viable,” he emphasised.
Rather than signalling a structural realignment, Ritolia emphasised that this shift reflects opportunistic sourcing, as refiners capitalise on arbitrage windows amid subdued global demand and excess supply.
“While geopolitical considerations and shifting alliances do influence trade to some extent, they are secondary to the core driver — refining economics. Ultimately, whether crude flows from Russia, the US, or West Asia, if pricing is attractive and barrel fits technically, logistically, and politically, Indian refiners will seize the opportunity — because in this market, margins speak louder than maps,” he emphasised.
Russian roulette
Russia’s position as India’s top supplier reflects continued reliance on discounted barrels and its ability to deliver across geographies. Urals dominated the intake in May, accounting for roughly 75 per cent of Russian volumes, followed by CPC and ESPO, Ritolia said.
India imported around 1.87 mb/d crude oil from Russia last month, down slightly from 1.96 mb/d in April, though it remained the largest single supplier. This dip is partly due to a few cargoes initially expected in late May slipping into June 2025, briefly pulling monthly totals below the 2 mb/d threshold, he pointed out.
Iraq ranked second, exporting 1.08 mb/d last month, with steady volumes aided by long-term contracts and favourable compatibility with Indian refineries. Saudi Arabia followed with 581,000 b/d, stable m-o-m but lower in relative share due to India’s pivot toward more competitively priced barrels.
The UAE supplied 460,000 b/d, showing a significant jump from April, with Murban and Das Blend crudes gaining preference amid falling OSPs tied to higher OPEC+ output. The US remained India’s fifth-largest supplier at 298,000 b/d, highlighting ongoing diversification efforts and price-driven arbitrage, Ritolia said.
Published on June 5, 2025
This article first appeared on The Hindu Business Line
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