India’s crude oil imports hit record high in March

India’s crude oil imports surpassed 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) during March 2025—the highest monthly volume in over 15 years—aided by strong domestic demand coupled with high refining capacity and favourable economics with Russian barrels.

Another interesting development is the return of Russian barrels pushing up import numbers. Indian refiners are fast adapting to the evolving trade dynamics by deftly navigating sanctions to procure Russian barrels despite higher logistics costs and ship-to-ship transfers (STS), with imports hitting a six-month high in March 2025.

According to trade numbers from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, India imported a record 5.13 mb/d of crude oil last month, on a provisional basis, compared to 4.78 mb/d in February 2025 and 4.95 mb/d during March last year.

“India’s overall crude imports in March are estimated at around 5,133,000 (b/d), based on Kpler data—the highest monthly import volume on record since 2008. This surge has pushed refinery throughput to near-record levels, reflecting a combination of structural and seasonal factors,” Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline.

He explained that with low scheduled maintenance outages in February and March, most Indian refineries are operating at elevated levels. Besides, March marks the Fiscal year end for PSUs oil marketing companies (OMCs), who typically ramp up runs to meet or exceed their annual MoU targets—a recurring seasonal pattern.

That apart, robust demand for fuel, agricultural activity (harvesting season), high industrial output and pre-summer logistical movement is also pushing up demand.

Competitive Russian barrels

Higher imports in March 2025 also points to strong refining margins, supported by robust local demand and the availability of discounted Russian barrels, Ritolia emphasised.

India’s imports of Russian crude surged to around 1.9 mb/d in March, marking an increase of over 400,000 b/d M-o-M and more than 200,000 b/d Y-o-Y. Of this, Urals alone accounted for around 1.43 mb/d, a 4-month high, reinforcing its role as the dominant Russian blend in India’s import mix.

“This rebound underscores a critical trend: despite the presence of sanctions, Russia’s crude flows to India remain resilient. The current structure of sanctions, lacking secondary enforcement targeting buyers or shippers, appears insufficient to significantly disrupt this trade,” Ritolia said.

The Kpler analyst explained that following the recent drone attacks on Russian refineries, domestic crude processing fell to about 5.2–5.3 mb/d (January 2025: 5.5 mb/d), increasing export availability.

“Urals FOB prices dropped to (approx) $55–57 per barrel in March, below the $60 price cap, enabling use of Western logistics and insurance. Indian refiners have capitalised on this arbitrage buying more Russian barrels at discounted prices despite logistical complexity,” he added.

Going ahead

Elaborating on import volumes during March and evolving trade dynamics, Ritolia opined, “March numbers validate a few key themes (such as) India remains a core demand centre for Russian oil amid Western disengagement. Price and refining economics outweigh geopolitical pressure—at least in the current framework.”

“If secondary sanctions targeting buyers, traders or insurers are not imposed, we can expect continued strong Russian crude flows to India, especially in a high-demand, high-margin environment.”

On the geopolitical dynamics, a senior government official said, “Both countries will continue to collaborate considering it is a win-win. Besides, if Russian supplies decline, we have 39 other sources. India’s demand is rising and the government will meet it.”

Trade sources said that after the January 10 US OFAC sanctions, there is a rebound in mainstream crude oil tanker demand largely due to apprehensions in India and China over supply. Russian replacement barrels being sourced from the Middle East and the Atlantic basin pushed up tonne-mile demand and rates for VLCCs and Suezmaxes.

OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report pegs India’s overall oil demand expansion during January-March 2025 to grow by 221,000 b/d Y-o-Y, while it is expected to rise by 239,000 b/d, Y-o-Y, to average at 5.8 mb/d in 2025.

On the other hand, the US EIA expects India to increase its liquid fuels consumption by 0.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, compared with an increase of 0.2 million in 2024.