‘India’s cotton area may see a dip in 2025-26 as farmers seen shifting to pulses, oilseeds’

India’s cotton acreage for market year (MY) 2025-26 is seen lower at 11.4 million hectares, a three per cent decrease from the previous year due to the unexpected shift of planted area to higher return crops such as pulses and oilseeds, according to the forecast by USDA India Post.

However, production is seen at 25 million bales of 480 pounds each similar to the current year on higher yields. Based on the expectation of a normal monsoon season, the USDA Post has forecast an average yield of 477 kilograms per hectare for MY 2025/26, a three percent increase from the official MY 2024/25 estimate of 461 kilograms per hectare due to production in regions with adequate irrigation facilities and water availability.

The USDA Post said the planted area in Punjab is forecast to remain steady, with reductions in Haryana by five percent due to a shift to paddy rice planting. Yields in both states are expected to be marginally lower as farmers divert water to other crops. The area planted in Rajasthan is expected to be down two percent from the previous year, as farmers are seen shifting area to crops such as guar, maize and pulses (mung) due to anticipated higher prices. However, better pest management practices will likely support higher yields, it said.

The acreage in Gujarat, the largest producing state, is expected down three percent from last year on shifts to pulses, groundnut, cumin and sesamum. Although current domestic farmgate prices for cotton have seen lower decline than other commodities, its cost of production remains significantly higher, it said. In addition to the shorter growing duration, strong government support, and export demand makes pulses and groundnut a preferred crop this season in Gujarat.

In Maharashtra, area planted is expected to remain the same as last year as farmers were dissatisfied with the low soybean prices in the current season so they may consider diversifying to pigeon pea (tur) and maize due to better profitability. Madhya Pradesh is forecasted to go down five percent, as farmers shift to oilseeds and pulses.

In the South, the strong government incentive schemes for ethanol production may prompt farmers to shift area from cotton to maize and rice in the southern states of Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, resulting in an estimated decrease of seven percent as compared to last year.

The USDA Post estimates MY 2025/26 mill consumption at 25.7 million bales of 480 pounds, about 0.8 per cent higher than last year, as yarn and textiles demand remains steady in major international markets. Exports for MY 2025/26 are forecast at 1.5 million (480-lb) bales, seven percent higher than last year on large carryover stocks. A continuing depreciation of the rupee could provide opportunities for greater cotton and cotton product exports.

Cotton imports for MY 2025/26 are forecast at 2.5 million bales, four percent lower than last year. Indian mills will continue to rely on imports to supplement insufficient domestic supplies of machine-picked contamination free fiber.

Further, the USDA Post estimates an increase in consumption of Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton on improved international market demand in MY 2025/26. Mills rely on imported supplies, primarily from US, to meet consumption needs. The United States, Egypt, and Israel are the major suppliers of the ELS variety, and imports from the United States maintain an average 50 percent market share of total imports. More than 47 percent of US exports to India by value is ELS cotton, and 90 per cent of the imported US fiber is re-exported in the form of contamination free yarn and fabric.

In India, ELS cotton is grown in about 2 lakh ha in Central and Southern India, primarily under the DCH-32 and MCU-5 hybrids. Production increases remain challenging due to low yields, higher production costs, and increased susceptibility to sucking pests and bollworms.