Five things to know about Canada’s election

These projections mean it remains unclear whether the Liberals will be able to form a government on their own, or will have to lead a minority government with support from other parties in the 343-member Commons.

Here are five immediate takeaways from the election results.

1. 01
   

   Mark Carney’s message has hit home.

   When the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England succeeded Justin Trudeau as head of the Liberal Party earlier this year, he was untested politically, but he was seen as a steady, diplomatic hand.

   He was someone who many voters believed Canada, grappling with a cost of living crisis and bullied and harassed by the President of its giant neighbour to the south, needed desperately. (More on this in the next point.)

   Carney focused his election campaign on Donald Trump. In his victory speech on Monday night (in Canada), he said he was “looking forward to delivering for Canadians”.

   “As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water,” he said. “President Trump is trying to break us so he can own us. That will never happen.”

   “Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me?” he asked. From the results of the election that seemed buried entirely for the Liberals only three months ago, it is clear that many Canadians did.

2. 02
   

   Trump’s foreign policy helped Canadians make up their mind.

   The Conservatives peaked in the polling at 44.8% on January 20, the day Trump was inaugurated, and kept falling after that.

   This was because, to the shock and anger of the Canadian people and government, the President chose to viciously go after one of America’s closest allies, targeting it with tariffs, and openly and repeatedly threatening its sovereignty without provocation.

   Suddenly, “how to deal with Trump” became the most pressing issue in the country – and the extent to which the Liberals could leverage the anger against Trump was seen as a key determinant of the electoral outcome.

   Trump, who has been describing Canada as the 51st US state and its leader as an American “Governor”, kept at it even on election day:

   “Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” he posted on social media. “Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago.”

   He seems to have only triggered patriotic Canadians even more.

3. 03
   

   Poilievre’s defeat shows conservatism of a certain kind can become toxic after a point.

   One advantage Carney always had was his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre’s clear ideological affinity with Trump’s brand of conservative politics.

   In Trudeau’s last months in power, as Poilievre’s star soared, he was putting small government and low taxes at the heart of his political message. To many Canadians struggling with a housing and affordability crisis, his promise of returning to “common sense politics” seemed a welcome alternative to Trudeau’s perceived “socialism”.

   But the other side of his political messaging was his tendency to borrow liberally from the playbook of Trump and his MAGA base — from ranting against Trudeau’s “wokeism” and Canada’s corporate establishment to using phrases like “Canada First”, seemingly inspired by Trump’s “America First”. Critics had been describing him as “Trump Lite”.

   This was still OK as long as his opponent was the weak and unpopular Trudeau, and Trump was not yet in the White House. Once that situation changed, Poilievre failed to find an effective idiom to take on both Trump and the Liberals. For the Liberals, on the other hand, Trump’s provocations opened up a path to victory.

   On Monday night, even as he trailed in his own Ontario riding of Carleton, Poilievre told supporters in Ottawa that he had no intention of stepping down as head of the Conservatives. But that does not mean he cannot be removed by his party.

4. 04
   

   The end of Jagmeet Singh’s kingmaking powers.

   Canadian Sikh leader Jagmeet Singh lost the seat he has held in the Commons since 2019, coming in third in Burnaby Central, formerly Burnaby South riding.

   His party, the New Democrats (NDP), which propped up Trudeau’s minority government between 2021 and 2024, has been hammered in the election, and has lost its official status after failing to win the minimum 12 seats that are needed.

   Generally described as social democratic — it sits to the left of the Liberals on most issues — the NDP has consistently been the third or fourth largest party in the Canadian House of Commons.

   Jagmeet Singh has announced he will step down as its leader.

5. 05
   

   How India’s relations with Canada evolve remains to be seen.

   The diplomatic crisis triggered by Trudeau’s extraordinary attacks on India after the killing of a Khalistani separatist in that country remains largely unresolved.

   After Carney took over as Prime Minister, India had said in an official statement that “the downturn in India-Canada relations was caused by the license that was given to the extremist and secessionist elements in that country”, and that New Delhi hoped that ties could be rebuilt on the basis of “mutual trust and sensitivity”.

   Canada has become an outlier among India’s steadily strengthening partnerships with other Anglosphere nations, such as Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US. However, Canadian leaders across the political spectrum recognise the strategic and economic importance of fostering closer ties with India. Carney himself has signalled his intention to “rebuild” relations.

   What happens now will depend on how strong his government is, and what domestic priorities he chooses to engage with first. It will also depend on the progress of the murder case in the Canadian courts and what revelations, if any, emerge.