Do IPL finals favour the team winning the toss?

The stage is set for a historic finale as Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Punjab Kings are set to face off in the final of the 18th edition of the IPL at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad. Both franchises are aiming to end their long-standing title drought in the cash-rich tournament.

RCB have reached the final three times previously, in 2009, 2011, and 2016, only to fall short on each occasion. PBKS, formerly known as Kings XI Punjab, made their sole appearance in the final in 2014, where they were defeated by Kolkata Knight Riders.

As anticipation builds ahead of the high-stakes encounter, attention has increasingly turned toward the tactical importance of winning the toss, a factor that has historically played a crucial role in deciding the outcome of title clashes. Over the years, the toss has proven to be more than just a formality, it has often set the tone for how the match unfolds.

An analysis of past IPL finals reveals a striking pattern: out of the 16 finals held prior to the 2024 season, the team that won the toss emerged victorious on 10 occasions. This trend underscores the strategic value of making the right decision at the toss, whether to bat or bowl first, based on pitch conditions, team strengths, and pressure dynamics of a high-stakes encounter.

IPL final results (2008–2024)

2024: In the final between Sunrisers Hyderabad and Kolkata Knight Riders, Pat Cummins-led Hyderabad won the toss and elected to bat first. However, Kolkata Knight Riders crushed Hyderabad by eight wickets to win their third IPL title.

2023: In the final between Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings, Chennai won the toss and elected to bowl first. They went on to win the match by 5 wickets, clinching another IPL title.

2022: Rajasthan Royals won the toss against Gujarat Titans and chose to bat first. However, Gujarat successfully chased down the target and secured a 7-wicket victory.

2021: Kolkata Knight Riders opted to bowl first after winning the toss against Chennai Super Kings. CSK posted a strong total and eventually won the match by 27 runs.

2020: Delhi Capitals decided to bat first after winning the toss against Mumbai Indians. MI chased down the target comfortably and lifted the trophy with a 5-wicket win.

2019: In a closely contested final, Mumbai Indians elected to bat first against Chennai Super Kings. MI held their nerve and edged out CSK by just 1 run to secure the title.

2018: Chennai Super Kings won the toss and chose to bowl first against Sunrisers Hyderabad. CSK put on a dominant batting display and won the final by 8 wickets.

2017: Mumbai Indians opted to bat first after winning the toss against Rising Pune Supergiant. In a nail-biting finish, MI defended their total and won the match by one run.

2016: Sunrisers Hyderabad chose to bat first after winning the toss against Royal Challengers Bangalore. They set a competitive total and managed to win the final by 8 runs.

2015: Chennai Super Kings decided to bowl first after winning the toss against Mumbai Indians. MI posted a big score and went on to win the final by 41 runs.

2014: In the final against Kings XI Punjab, Kolkata Knight Riders won the toss and opted to bowl first. KKR chased down the target and won by 3 wickets in an exciting finish.

2013: Mumbai Indians elected to bat first after winning the toss against Chennai Super Kings. MI put up a solid performance and emerged victorious by 23 runs.

2012: Chennai Super Kings chose to bat first after winning the toss against Kolkata Knight Riders. However, KKR chased down the total successfully and won by 5 wickets.

2011: In the final against Royal Challengers Bangalore, Chennai Super Kings won the toss and opted to bat first. CSK dominated the match and claimed a comprehensive 58-run victory.

2010: Chennai Super Kings again chose to bat first after winning the toss against Mumbai Indians. They maintained control throughout and secured the title with a 22-run win.

2009: Royal Challengers Bangalore opted to bowl first against Deccan Chargers. However, Deccan held on and won the closely fought final by 6 runs.

2008: In the inaugural IPL final, Rajasthan Royals won the toss and decided to bowl first against Chennai Super Kings. RR chased down the target and clinched a thrilling victory by 3 wickets

This article first appeared on Mid Day