Crude oil prices crashed last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($66.80/barrel) tumbled 13.3 per cent and the crude oil futures on the MCX (₹5,601/barrel) shed a considerable 12.5 per cent.

Brent futures ($66.80)

Brent crude oil futures fell sharply on the back of the trendline resistance at $78. Also, the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the prior downtrend is at $80, thus forming a resistance band of $78-80.

That said, from the current level, there is a support ahead at $66. If this is breached, the downtrend can extend to $62 and then potentially to $60. But if there is a recovery, the contract can face barriers at $69 and $71.

Given that Brent crude futures witnessed high volatility over the last three weeks, there is a high chance for a consolidation in the short-term.

MCX-Crude oil (₹5,601)

Crude oil futures (Jul) declined as ₹6,500 acted as a strong resistance, triggering a substantial fall of 12.5 per cent last week.

From the current level, there is a support at ₹5,500, which can arrest further downside move. But if this level is taken out by the bears, we will most likely see another leg of fall to ₹5,150, a support. Subsequent support is at ₹4,800.

In case crude oil futures recovers on the back of the support at ₹5,500, it will face resistance at ₹5,770 and ₹6,000.

That said, since the contract has seen large price movements over the past three weeks, there is a chance for a sideways movement, at least for the short-term. This could be between ₹5,500 and ₹6,000.

Trade strategy: Next leg of trend depends on which of ₹5,500 and ₹6,000 is breached first. Until then, participants can stay out.

Published on June 28, 2025

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