Ceasefire and after – The Hindu BusinessLine

India has underscored its non-escalatory approach, while reserving its right to respond to extreme provocation
| Photo Credit:
SHARAFAT ALI

Four days after the launch of Operation Sindoor, a fragile ceasefire seems to have come into effect from Saturday evening. Fragile, because Pakistan broke the ceasefire even before the ink could run dry. While it is hoped that the military top brass of the two countries arrive at modalities to keep the ceasefire when they meet soon, the question that is engaging the nation is — was accepting the ceasefire a good idea?

There has been a good deal of commentary on how India might have just let Pakistan off the hook, after securing an advantage in battle. This is an unrealistic view. India has accepted the ceasefire offer from a position of strength. The May 7 strikes were a huge setback to the terror operatives and their networks. But it is surely fantastic to believe that India can pursue other goals such as reclaiming disputed territory in a prolonged burst of aggression — a precipitous course of action to pursue against a nuclear-armed country. Besides, India cannot afford to be bogged down in a war that diverts its energies and attention from the more important pursuit of developing the country and improving the lives of its citizens.

India has rightly committed to responding to any act of terror, making that a part of its policy with Pakistan. At the same time, it has underscored its non-escalatory approach, while reserving its right to respond to extreme provocation. The short-term objectives were met to the extent that terror bases were neutralised. The Indian Air Force smashed about 11 Pakistan airbases in the last three days, as Pakistan sprayed drones over 15 Indian cities and military bases, most of which were neutralised by India’s air defence. The damage inflicted on Pakistan was far more than on the Indian side. The limited engagement showed the changing character of war as both sides unleashed stand-off precision-guided weapons, drones and loitering munitions. The standout feature was India’s robust air defence systems which engaged almost all drones and projectiles fired by Pakistan. Indian Air Force and the Army’s air defence systems deserve praise for their performance.

But the war raises some concerns. First, there has to be a long term containment strategy for Pakistan. An engagement with saner sections of the political establishment keen on development is the best bet. Besides, India cannot remain mired in two related frontiers of conflict, on its west and east, without seriously damaging its economic prospects. Prickly ties with an aggressive China would require some attention. Finally, the IMF’s approval of a $1 billion loan to Pakistan raises troubling questions about US’ stance, even as it claims having been a ‘mediator’ to the ceasefire — which India has denied. India should take up this issue with the IMF’s largest creditor, while engaging the diplomatic community to turn up the pressure on Pakistan. A primary thrust here would be to activate the Financial Action Task Force. The battle might have been won, but the war has just begun.

Published on May 11, 2025

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