Barring a few red flags outside the residence of the National Conference candidate, Aga Syed Mahmood, it is hard to tell that Budgam is in the middle of an election.

Mahmood, a seasoned leader of the party, said he was told he was fighting the bypoll at the last minute. “I had to activate my workers all of a sudden,” said the 69-year-old.

A fresh election in Budgam is being held as Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah, who contested and won the seat in last year’s Assembly election, decided to give it up for Ganderbal, the second seat he had won.

Despite the lack of enthusiasm on the ground, many see the bypoll on November 11 as a test of National Conference’s popularity.

A year after it won a resounding mandate, there appears to be a growing disillusionment with the Omar Abdullah government for failing to deliver on its major promises and its non-confrontational stand towards New Delhi.

The echo of that criticism can be heard clearly in Budgam. The party’s own Member of Parliament, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, has refused to campaign for it, even though Budgam is his home terrain. “The party had reached out to me through informal channels,” Ruhullah told Scroll. “I told them that the party has not fulfilled any major promise it made to the people ahead of the 2024 Assembly elections. So, how can I go to the people for votes?”

Political observers in the Valley say the National Conference will be keenly watching the bypoll as the results may signal more than a win or loss of a seat. “In a way it’s a test of NC’s performance,” said Dr Sheikh Showkat Hussain, former professor of law at Central University of Kashmir. “But the affiliations of the candidates will also play a role.”

The Shia factor

A total of 17 candidates have filed nominations for the bypoll, including seven independent candidates. However, the contest is largely expected to be between the ruling National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party.

The major political players have picked candidates from the influential Shia religious clergy clan of Agas – to which Ruhullah belongs.

The PDP candidate is Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, the son of a separatist Hurriyat leader and president of an influential Shia Muslim organization. Mehdi lost to Abdullah in last year’s election but the party has re-nominated him.

The National Conference has chosen a member of the same clan – Mahmood, who is a former cabinet minister and two-time MLA.

Mahmood and Mehdi live in the same neighbourhood and are related to each other.

Sunni Muslims are the majority in the Budgam Assembly segment, but it has been largely represented by Shia politicians. That’s because Shia votes have traditionally consolidated behind religious leaders who double as mainstream politicians.

As a significant chunk of Budgam’s population – as is true of the Valley – traditionally chose not to vote, it’s the loyalty towards a particular religious leader that decides the election. “When it comes to loyalty towards religious authority, it doesn’t matter whether a person is qualified to be an elected representative or not,” said Mohsin Ahmad, a student from Budgam. “People just vote blindly.”

The Ruhullah vote

The National Conference’s biggest hurdle is Ruhullah choosing to stay out of the campaign.

Since 2019, Ruhullah has emerged as a voice of Kashmir’s discontentment with the Narendra Modi government’s decision to scrap special status and downgrade it into a union territory.

But the Srinagar MP appears increasingly isolated within the National Conference, leaving his supporters confused.

A Ruhullah supporter in Budgam said he was waiting for a direction from the leader on who to vote for in the upcoming by-poll. “He may ask his voters to stay away from the polls altogether,” he said. “Even if his directions come on the morning of polling, people will vote as per his decision.”

Aga Ruhullah’s popularity is not lost on Mahmood. “Not only is he my relative, he is like my son,” said Mahmood, who is also related to Aga Ruhullah. “We cannot ignore the fact that he has a huge vote bank and many followers. The party will reach out to him for support in the campaign. But I will also approach him on my own for the welfare of the people of Budgam.”

Ruhullah, however, has clearly said that his loyalty is to his “conscience and principles.”

“While I hold respect for my elders in my family, I request them not to belittle my fight (our fight). If they can’t comprehend it and be part of it, at least don’t drag me and my struggle to this level,” Ruhullah had said in a post on social media platform X in response to Mahmood’s assertion that the Srinagar MP will campaign for the party.

Keeping it basic

The candidates in the fray are wary of promising too much. They would rather focus on governance problems – of which Budgam has plenty – rather than political aspirations like restoration of statehood or special status.

“When I go to people, I talk about the lack of basic amenities like drinking water and education,” Mehdi, the PDP candidate, said.

His agenda for the election, he said, is entirely Budgam-specific.

Mehdi is also trying to tap into the dejection felt by the people of Budgam following Omar Abdullah’s decision to vacate the seat. “Whatever issues people had in the last one year, I was with them on ground,” he said. “But the people of Budgam have felt trashed in the last one year.”

He said he was confident that the people of Budgam would not like to be a political leader’s safe seat. “The people of Budgam have decided that they won’t become a stepney of some political party,” said Mehdi.

‘How does it matter?’

Even with over a dozen candidates in fray, there is very little spirit visible among the voters in Budgam.

“How does it matter who wins?” asked Farooq Ahmad, a businessman from the Ompura area of the assembly segment. “The fact is that ever since becoming a union territory, elected representatives have been left powerless. Common people feel helpless after electing them.”

National Conference’s candidate Mahmood said he sensed a similar feeling from the public. “I have been a minister as well as an MLA in the past. The kind of power and influence I enjoyed as an MLA in the past is not possible in the union territory set-up,” he underlined.

Despite such limitations, Mahmood says, there’s no other option than using whatever little space is available for elected representatives. “I am aware that I may not be able to solve the problems of the people like I used to do in the past but people of Budgam have felt leaderless since last year,” he said. “They need someone who can speak on their behalf and who they can approach with their problems.

He added: “If elected, we have to struggle in order to address the issues of the public. There is no other option.”

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