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India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
The weather agency said that the country is expected to get 106% of the long period average rainfall, which refers to the mean rainfall during the four-month monsoon season over the last 50 years. The season generally begins in June and starts to retreat by September.
The long-period average of seasonal rainfall across the country, for the period between 1971 and 2020, is 87 cm.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the department’s director general, released the second-stage long range forecast on Tuesday, revising the agency’s earlier prediction.
In April, the weather agency had forecast that India was likely to receive 105% of the long period average rainfall during the southwest monsoon season.
As per the revised prediction, the monsoon core zone is likely to receive above-normal rainfall (more than 106% of the long period average) this season, PTI quoted M Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, as having said at a press conference.
The core zone includes parts of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha and nearby areas, which are heavily dependent on monsoon rain for agriculture.
Above-normal rainfall is expected across most parts of the country, except in Ladakh, adjoining areas of Himachal Pradesh, the northeastern states and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha.
Some isolated pockets in Haryana, Kerala, Punjab and Tamil Nadu may experience below normal rainfall, the India Meteorological Department said.
The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on Saturday, marking its earliest onset over mainland India since 2009, when it made landfall on May 23.
The monsoon system, this year, also reached Mumbai 16 days ahead of the usual date.
The monsoon usually reaches Kerala by June 1 and Mumbai by June 11. It covers the entire country by July 8.
Ravichandran said that “multiple large-scale features” such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole had created favourable conditions for the early onset of the monsoon, The Indian Express reported.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia.
Due to the expected above-normal rainfall, the country may experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures this year, except for areas in northwestern and northeastern India, Mohapatra was quoted as saying by PTI.
This article first appeared on Scroll.in
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