Coffee prices ease a tad, but still at historic highs

Global coffee prices have eased a tad in April on a lack of clear direction, even as certified robusta stocks in London have dipped. Arabicas saw an increase, the International Coffee Organisation said. In India, prices eased, tracking the global trend, even as the good pre-monsoon showers have raised the prospects for the new crop starting October.

ICO, in its latest report, said the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 335.76 US cents per pound in April 2025, a 3.5 per cent decrease from March 2025. Prices of the Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ decreased by 2.7 per cent and 2.8 per cent compared to March 2025, averaging 394.14 and 392.84 US cents/lb, respectively in April 2025.

The Brazilian Naturals depreciated, decreasing by 3.6 per cent to 378.27 US cents/lb in April 2025, whereas the robustas retracted 4.4 per cent to 246.39 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential expanded from 0.95 to 1.30 US cents/lb between March 2025 and April 2025, the ICO said. Also, the arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York futures markets, further retracted 0.3 per cent to 134.67 US cents/lb in April 2025.

Price range

According to the ICO, the London-certified stocks of robusta coffee decreased by 3.1 per cent from March 2025 to April 2025, closing the month at 0.71 million bags. However, the certified stocks of arabica coffee followed an opposite and stronger trend, expanding to 0.85 million 60-kg bags — a 6.4 per cent increase versus March 2025.

In India, the farmgate coffee prices have eased following the global trend, amidst the improving crop outlook for the crop year 2025-26, starting October, aided by the good pre-monsoon rains in the key producing regions of Karnataka and Kerala.

Currently, arabica parchment prices are ruling in the range of ₹26,200-27,200 per 50-kg bag compared with 26,500-27,200 during the last week of March. Arabica cherry prices are hovering around ₹14,650-16,250 per 50-kg bag comapred with ₹15,200-17,000 during March last week.

Similarly, robusta parchment prices have eased to ₹20,700-22,000 levels, down from ₹22,200-22,900 levels in March last week.

“Prices have eased a bit from about a month ago, but historically speaking, they are still at pretty high levels,” said Praveen Kolimarla of Agrani Coffee and Commodities. Robusta is still ruling above $5,000 per tonne in London, while arabicas are at over 375 cents per pound in New York.

Kolimarla attributed the correction in the terminal market prices to the improved crop outlook in Brazil, where the harvest from July will likely be better than expected on favourable weather conditions, according to the forecast made by the Brazilian Agriculture Organisation, Conab, and exporters’ associations. Also, on the macroeconomic front, as the uncertainty comes down over the tariffs issue and trade deals, the dollar has emerged stronger. “Usually, when the dollar is strong the coffee market tends to tends to drop,” he said.

Exports dip

Per Coffee Board data, the exports during January 1-May 13 were lower at 1.51 lakh tonnes (lt) compared with the corresponding previous year’s 1.73 lt on decline in shipments of robustas.

“Due to the high price, buyers and roasters are not buying forwards and mainly buying on need basis,” Kolimarla said.

Key coffee producing districts such as Chikmagaluru and Kodagu have received surplus pre-monsoon rains till now. Per the Indian Meterological Department, cumulative pre-monsoon rainfall from March 1 till May 14 was 70 per cent more than normal in Chikmagaluru, 41 per cent more in Kodagu, 16 per cent more in Hassan and 28 per cent more in Wayanad.

Recently, the US Department of Agriculture’s local office in Mumbai projected a 2.4 per cent dip in India’s coffee crop for the year 2025-26, starting October, at 6.05 million bags of 60-kg each (3.63 lt) on weather issues affecting yields. For 2024-25, the USDA projected India’s coffee output at 6.2 million bags (3.72 lt). Production of arabicas for 2025-26 is projected at 1.35 million bags of 60-kg each (81,000 tonnes) against previous year’s 1.4 million bags (84,000 tonnes). Similarly, the robusta output is projected at 4.7 million bags (2.82 lt) for 2025-26 against previous year’s 4.8 million bags (2.88 lt).

Published on May 14, 2025

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