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The three-month contract of tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is quoted at $32,300 a tonne
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Tin prices in the global market are expected to remain elevated on continuing supply issues and increasing demand, particularly in the electronics and energy sectors, analysts said.
“We maintain our tin price forecast for 2025 at $32,000/tonne, and prices may fluctuate as trade tensions dampen the demand outlook while continued supply issues keep markets on edge,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
Tom Langston, senior market analyst at the International Tin Association, said tin prices have stabilised over the past month, steadied by positive developments surrounding key supply disruptions in Myanmar and the DR Congo.
Softening tensions
“A softening of global trade tensions—particularly between the US and China—has also helped ease the volatility seen in base metal prices,” he said.
Currently, the three-month contract of tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is quoted at $32,300 a tonne. Spot prices of tin, used for protective coating in alloys, soldering in the electrical and electronic sectors, on the LME ruled around $32,000.
The World Bank in its Commodities Outlook said tin prices are set to increase by 3 per cent in 2025 year-on-year and 2 per cent in 2026, reaching near-record nominal levels on an annual average basis.
Tin prices increased by 5 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, but fell in April amid mounting trade tensions.
Chinese smelters hit
“The rally in Q1 was fueled by supply concerns, including an earthquake in Myanmar, a major tin producer, and the suspension of mining operations at the world’s third-largest tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to escalating conflict,” it said.
But BMI said after nearly two years of tin mining being halted in Myanmar, the authorities declared in March 2025 that operations at the Wa State of Myanmar could resume, with new licenses a requirement for those wishing to undertake projects in the area.
“As of April 2025, talks had been postponed as a result of an earthquake in the region, with no further updates regarding a new date,” it said.
Langston said China’s tin smelter production remains hit by the lack of sufficient concentrates, although Indonesia’s tin exports have started to recover after a sustained decline in 2024.
The World Bank said global tin supply is set to steadily pick up in 2025, principally due to production growth in Indonesia and Myanmar, which together account for one-fifth of global tin supply. Indonesian tin shipments are expected to rise this year after the resolution of export licensing delays that constrained supply in 2024.
“The anticipated restart of Myanmar’s largest mine, closed since mid-2023, would further alleviate supply constraints in the near term,” it said.
Limited pipeline
However, Langston said feedstock tightness in China will likely persist through the second quarter, as the long-awaited mining restart in Wa is progressing slowly, and the impact of the DR Congo disruption continued to affect Asian smelters.
“In Q1, demand was pulled forward as producers frontloaded exports in anticipation of US trade barriers. However, the forecast for the remainder of the year remains significantly more uncertain. Ongoing trade negotiations during the 90-day pause on the US ‘reciprocal tariffs’ will play a critical role in shaping this outlook,” he said.
BMI said on the consumption side, global semiconductor sales seem to be have started ebbing on the back of trade tensions. “We expect this to continue into 2026 as economic growth is hampered,” he said.
The World Bank Commodities outlook said global market conditions are expected to remain tight in the coming years, reflecting a limited pipeline of new tin mining projects in development.
It projected a steady growth in demand, including for semiconductors, photovoltaic panels, and other energy transition technologies for the metal.
Published on May 13, 2025
This article first appeared on The Hindu Business Line
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