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Guesses about who will be the next Roman Catholic pope often prove inaccurate. Before the selection of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers had not even counted him among the front-runners.
This time, predictions are further complicated because Francis made many appointments in a relatively short amount of time during his tenure, diversifying the College of Cardinals and making it harder to identify movements and factions within the group.
Still, discussion of potential names began long ago behind the Vatican’s walls, and observers are predicting several possibilities.
Some are seen as likely to build on Francis’ progressive agenda, while others would represent a return to a more traditional style. Experts also suggest that the College might favor a prelate with experience in the complexities of international relations.
Here are some of the contenders.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, an Italian who is the Vatican’s top official for Middle East affairs, is considered a possible front-runner. Although he became a cardinal only in 2023, his experience in one of the world’s most heated conflict zones helped him rise to prominence.
Cardinal Pizzaballa would be the first Italian pope since John Paul I in 1978, but experts say he is also considered an international figure and removed from Vatican politics, having spent much of his career in Jerusalem.
He has also generally steered clear of polemics about doctrine, which experts say could help him secure the necessary two-thirds majority in the College of Cardinals, although some think he may be considered too young for the role.
Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, has been Pope Francis’ second-in-command since 2013, when Francis made him secretary of state. In that role, the cardinal is in charge of overseeing internal church affairs and guiding foreign policy.
A soft-spoken Italian and mild-mannered centrist, Cardinal Parolin is deeply familiar with the Curia, the church’s central administration, as well as of the Vatican’s vast international network, having served for over 20 years as a diplomat and under secretary at the Vatican-based body that oversees its international relations.
Fluent in English, French, Italian and Spanish, he has spoken at international conferences on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, climate change and human trafficking.
He is also an expert on Asia, and Vatican watchers consider him the mastermind of the progress the Vatican has made in recent years on building relations with China and Vietnam.
Fridolin Ambongo
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, the archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been considered a possible contender since Francis made him a cardinal in 2019.
Pope Francis had long urged the Catholic Church to “go to the peripheries,” meaning communities in Africa and Asia, where the church also is the most vibrant. One persistent question has been when the church might reinforce that commitment by choosing a pope from Africa. Catholics make up about 18 percent of the population of the continent and generate more seminarians than any other part of the world.
Pope Francis, an Argentine, was the first non-European to lead the church since 741. Even so, Francis was from a family with Italian roots.
Yet there is a certain paradox involved in choosing any successor from Africa. While it would be a break from tradition, the Catholic hierarchy in Africa is among the most conservative.
Cardinal Ambongo has been close to Pope Francis, one of just nine members of an advisory group known as the Council of Cardinals. But the cardinal led the opposition to Francis’ 2023 ruling that the church should bless homosexual couples.
Luis Antonio Tagle
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, a liberal-leaning cardinal from the Philippines whom commentators have dubbed the “Asian Francis,” has for years been deemed a front-runner to be pope.
He was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012 and would be the first Asian pope.
An ally of Francis, the often smiling Cardinal Tagle goes by the nickname “Chito.” His highly personable approach is in line with Francis’ attention to the poor and those in need in developing countries, where he has lived and worked.
He accompanied Francis or helped prepare for his trips to Asia, including a grueling 11-day tour of Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the summer of 2024.
He also comes from a region of the world where Catholicism still plays a prominent role, and where Francis paid particular attention in trying to build a church with a less Eurocentric future.
Cardinal Tagle was widely considered one of the most promising candidates in the 2013 conclave but seemed too young for the job at the time.
Cardinal Tagle has dealt with some of the church’s most divisive issues, like the inclusion of gay people and whether to give communion to divorced and remarried Catholics.
He served as president of the church’s international gathering on the family in 2014, and of a general assembly on the same topic the following year, in which prelates agreed on a more inclusive approach by the church, although they remained opposed to same-sex marriage.
Matteo Zuppi
Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi of Italy, 69, stands out among the contenders who reflect Francis’ view that the church should be representative of and support the poor.
Francis promoted the progressive native of Bologna to the rank of cardinal in 2019 and assigned him several important missions. Some experts speculate that Francis would have likely favored him as his successor, although the pope never weighed in publicly on the matter.
Cardinal Zuppi is closely tied to Sant’Egidio, a Catholic community known for its service to the poor and conflict resolution.
Vatican watchers say the group became an increasingly important lobby under Francis, and experts suspect that the cardinal’s closeness to the powerful community could help him obtain votes. But that link has also raised concerns that, if elected pope, he would be overly influenced by the group.
In 2015, Francis named him archbishop of Bologna, one of the most important posts in Italy. There, “Don Matteo,” as he is known, continued to work with poor people and migrants. “Welcoming migrants is a historic challenge for Europe,” he has said. “Christ invites us to not turn away.”
And in recent years Francis appointed Cardinal Zuppi to the key role of envoy for Ukraine matters.
He has also been welcoming to L.G.B.T. Catholics, writing the preface for the Italian edition of the Rev. James Martin’s 2017 book, “Building a Bridge,” which called for the church to find new pastoral ways of ministering to gay people.
Peter Erdo
Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, 72, an expert on canon law, is expected to be a front-runner among cardinals who long for a return to the conservatism of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
John Paul II named the cleric archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in 2002, and the following year gave him a cardinal hat, making him — at 50 — the youngest cardinal at the time.
Cardinal Erdo is considered an astute diplomat, able to build bridges with Catholics in Latin America and Africa and good at reaching out to other religious groups. He has frequently attended Holocaust memorials, and Jewish leaders say his support has been crucial at a time of the rise of the far right and growing anti-Semitism in Hungary.
He is known to many of his Western counterparts, having served from 2006 to 2016 as president of the Council of the Bishops’ Conferences of Europe. He has also written several books, and speaks or understands English, French, German, Italian, Russian and Spanish, giving him linguistic prowess to serve a global flock.
He has spoken out against allowing divorced Catholics to receive communion and against taking in migrants.
In a 2019 book-length interview with Robert Moynihan, the founder and editor of Inside the Vatican magazine, Cardinal Erdo spoke of a need to “guard the flame” of traditional Christian faith in an increasingly secular world.
Anders Arborelius
Bishop Anders Arborelius of Stockholm, 75, who converted to Catholicism at age 20, is Sweden’s first Catholic cardinal.
Although Sweden was once predominantly Lutheran and is now largely secular, it is one of few European countries where the Roman Catholic Church has grown in recent years. Francis’ elevation of the cardinal in 2017 was seen as another attempt to reach out to countries where Catholics represent a minority.
In a recent interview, Cardinal Arborelius said the biggest challenges facing the Church were building bridges in a polarized world, giving greater influence to women within the Church, and helping families pass on the faith.
He also warned of political currents potentially dividing the Church. “It can be a danger in some parts of the church that you get divided on various issues,” he said. “We should not form parties within the Catholic Church.”
Cardinal Arborelius, a former Carmelite monk, has — like Francis — expressed support for migrants. But he voiced opposition to blessing same-sex couples. In 2006, he said that a decision by the Lutheran Swedish Church to allow such blessings would make dialogue between it and the Roman Catholic Church more difficult.
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