The Axis My India exit poll released on Wednesday evening projected a victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance in the Bihar Assembly elections.

According to the survey, the NDA is estimated to win between 121 and 141 seats, while the Opposition Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure between 98 and 118 seats.

The poll also predicted that former political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj may win between zero and two seats.

However, the post-poll survey showed that Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav was the top choice for the chief minister’s position in the state. A total of 34% of those surveyed said they want Yadav as the chief minister, while 22% said they favoured incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Several exit polls released on Tuesday had also predicted victory for the NDA over the Opposition alliance. The polls were published after voting in the second and final phase of the elections concluded.

The first phase of the Assembly polls took place on Thursday. The voter turnout in the first phase was a record 64.6%, the Election Commission said. The provisional polling percentage in the second phase on Tuesday was 68.7%, the poll panel said.

The votes will be counted on Friday.

On Tuesday, Dainik Bhaskar predicted the NDA is expected to win 145-160 seats. While Matrize has projected 147-167 seats for the ruling alliance, People’s Pulse has predicted that it will win 133-159 seats, People’s Insight pegged it will clinch 133-148 seats and Chanakya Strategies forecast 130-138 seats. P-Marq has projected 142-162 seats for NDA, while JVC has put the number at 135-150.

All seven exit polls forecast that the Mahagathbandhan will fall far short of the halfway mark. Dainik Bhaskar projected 73-91 seats for the Opposition alliance, Matrize 70-90, People’s Insight 87-102, People’s Pulse 75-101, P-Marq 80-98, Chanakya Strategies 100-108 and JVC 88-103.

The exit polls also predicted that Jan Suraaj may fail to win even a single seat in the elections, with projections ranging from zero to five seats. P-Marq, however, forecast one to four seats for the newly-formed party.

The Bihar Assembly has 243 members. A party or a coalition requires 122 seats to form the government.

The main contest in Bihar is between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.

The NDA comprises Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), the BJP, Union minister Chirag Paswan’s faction of the Lok Janshakti Party, the Rashtriya Lok Morcha and the Hindustani Awam Morcha.

The Mahagathbandhan comprises the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, the Vikassheel Insaan Party and three Left parties – the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist), the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) – along with the newly-formed Indian Inclusive Party.

Jan Suraaj party, which is not part of the two main alliances, is making its electoral debut.

The Opposition has projected RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate. The NDA has said that it contested the polls under Kumar’s leadership.

Kumar has been the chief minister for about 20 years, except for a nine-month period between 2014 and 2015.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan ended up with an identical vote share at 37.2%. However, the NDA returned to power in Bihar with a slender majority, winning 125 seats in the 243-member state Assembly. The Opposition bagged 110 seats.

The RJD had emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats but still lost the election.

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